Apple's Leopard Strategy: Screw Microsoft, Kill Dell, Save the 4th Quarter
August 11th, 2006 | by Rob Enderle
Post Your Comment...Comments
Donny on Aug 11th, 2006 at 5:48 PM:
Dell is losing new opportunities like crazy. I definately think that Apple is widening the gap in the media production gap. When people think media, they will think Apple.
It would be smart for Microsoft to distance themselves from Apple as much as possible. I am suprised that they let Apple even consider putting their OS on Apple hardware.
John on Aug 12th, 2006 at 8:02 AM:
Spot on, Mr. Enderle, spot on, especially about Leopard and Apple not showing all their cards. Apple has software and hardware to sell. I have heard many people on forums asking: Shall I wait until Leopard comes out before buying an Macbook? Indeed, if Apple had shown all their cards now, people could hold back on their purchase because they want Leopard and would not take anything less.
I think eventually, in a couple of years, Apple might be willing to open up Mac OS X to all PCs. But Apple needs time to test the X86 platform and make sure there are no hiccups. That's where the current Intel Macs come in: They are a test ground. Making a transition is not easy and sometimes it takes years. You cannot just 1-2-3 open up Mac OS X to everyone without solid testing, but some expect this. And when Microsoft least expect it, Mac OS X for everyone will be released. One can say it would be too late, but what is too late when one could grab a solid 30 percent of the desktop market? Never before was this possible because Apple used PowerPC instead of X86. But with the Intel step Apple is taking now, it opens up at least the possibility. Or maybe Apple will just remain hardware computer club - though very profitable, which many people seems to forget! It's up to Apple's CEO.
Longman on Aug 12th, 2006 at 8:58 AM:
Brilliant article. You've almost made me feel like apple's got a giant she's waiting to unleash upon the whole world and become the supreme power. But apple better patch all those issues with the MacBook and its Pro version if they have ne such ideas.
Jenny M on Aug 12th, 2006 at 10:11 AM:
http://www.digg.com/apple/Apple_s_Leopard_Strategy...
Excellent article. Apple is definately playing their cards right here.
Rohan Aarons on Aug 12th, 2006 at 11:46 AM:
what a crack of ****.......
Bo Clawson on Aug 12th, 2006 at 12:48 PM:
Dell's biggest problem is that it is NOT able to offer differentiation against other PCs because they do NOT develop winning software!
Microsoft's ultimate problem is they do NOT offer their own PC and they attempt to make their OS 'universal' for all Intel PCs.
Apple's Ease Intuitive Use, Total Cost of Ownership, Quick adoption of new technologies & Low Training Costs coupled with tight control of both hardware & software makes it all work.
This means Apple indeed is leading the 21st Century PC pack, as NO other computer company can.
Benji on Aug 12th, 2006 at 2:36 PM:
Bo you could not be further from the truth. Microsoft has never wanted to be in the PC hardware business. Sure they make peripherals, but I hardly think they will ever make a full blown PC.
"Apple's Ease Intuitive Use, Total Cost of Ownership, Quick adoption of new technologies & Low Training Costs coupled with tight control of both hardware & software makes it all work."
If that is the case why is Apple's marketshare in this space so tiny? People are just not seeing it then eh?
I guess software companies aren't either...
K1ller Inst1ct on Aug 12th, 2006 at 4:40 PM:
If Apple continues at the rate they are going they might capture 50% of the market in 20yrs. Microsoft has the market, because of their monopoly. They might be late with Vista but the average computer illiterate person doesnt care. It will run Office and play their games and it will be what they use at work. Don't get me wrong, I have a mac mini and their software and OS are solid but they have a lot to fight to get anywhere near 50% of the market.
Robert Smelser on Aug 12th, 2006 at 5:34 PM:
Kinda speaking to Benji's point and K1llier Inst1inct's:
"Innovation has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very little innovation. That's over. Apple lost. The desktop market has entered the dark ages, and it's going to be in the dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for the rest of this decade."
Interestingly enough, Jobs (then ousted from Apple) said this in 1996,and, to an extent, I think he still believes this and has focused on Apple carving out a small yet sturdy niche in the market.
Now that the niche is secure, Apple can begin growing. Their laptop marketshare, while still small, has grown at a phenomenal rate. Desktops will probably soon follow, and the Windows safety net can't hurt, but I think Mr. Enderle has a good idea of what's going on. Apple wants Windows to be the new Classic.
See DF's article on this at http://daringfireball.net/2006/04/windows_the_new_...
For a while, Apple was in a two-front war: one with MS and the other with PC manufacturers. This time paraphrasing Jobs: "We have to get the notion out of our heads that for Apple to win Microsoft must lose. For Apple to win, we must make great products."
Apple's products are getting better all the time, and their revenues and user-base are steadily growing. Apple is winning by their own definition, and, slowly, they may be able to convince those who feel Windows is "good enough" (not those that love Windows) that Mac OS is a reasonable alternative. Then we may see some real market growth.
Roger Schafer on Aug 12th, 2006 at 9:24 PM:
You are definitely on to something. Who else has the hardware, technology and software? Then let us ponder the series of retail outlets? If Apple can get the OS to run the applications all of us need and use they will have many converts. Whether one is viewing the market sector for Graphics, Media or plain spreadsheet, documents, presentations and email there is significant market share to capture. Then there is the Home Theater / Entertainment market. Many individuals and companies can become Apple buyers once a few more pieces are in place. My bet is Apple will get there and many of us are waiting to become part of the new wave of Apple users.
The General on Aug 12th, 2006 at 9:38 PM:
"If Apple continues at the rate they are going they might capture 50% of the market in 20yrs. Microsoft has the market, because of their monopoly."
50% of the market? Of POS and ATM machines? Rows of computers running banking software or uninspiring powerpoint presentations? Who cares but the bean counters slumped over them in some dark closet as they rush to punch the clock. That's not Apples market. Apple is going for the consumer, educational, and creative markets, which its share of is growing fast and soon to be out of control.
The marketshare numbers say nothing. Regardless of whether Apple has 2, 3, 4, or 5% of the market, the market is larger each year and Apple is selling more computers each year, even if the marketshare numbers don't change, which they are - up, up, and away.
Apple's Macintosh is taking it's seat front and center in every cafe, gallery, school, home, and small business day after day. The Macintosh is where the user is. Not pumping out receipts at the ATM machine or getting hit by a flying chair after a Zune profit (loss) report.
Apple already has 50% of the mindshare. If (once) Apple hits 10% marketshare by (before) the end of this decade, it will dominant what we know as personal computing, in the way that a steak dominants the grill.
The Windows PC is a tool as exciting as a screwdriver, you need it, but it sits in the garage, while your Macintosh entertains, educates, and inspires creativity in the hands of users.
Suds on Aug 12th, 2006 at 10:28 PM:
The General is right, talking about 50% of the marketshare is just stupid, it's not even necessary to talk about that kind of marketshare at the moment. Since the computer market is growing (roughly speaking) if Apple captures even 1% more of the market it has increased its profits by more than 20%, and who cares how quickly you capture market share as long as you're growing your profits?
jonnie savell on Aug 13th, 2006 at 1:36 AM:
I don't entirely agree.
I believe that Apple had some OS technologies that weren't stable or complete. I speculate that showing unstable technology would have legitimized the Vista disaster. I believe that Vista's decline in luster is the best thing to happen to Apple and there is no reason to destroy public perception in this case.
I also don't believe that the amazing multimedia experience that you describe will be realized in Leopard. I see Leopard as the foundation for this experience because I believe that it will contain many of the APIs and technologies for building the applications required to realize this experience, minus the applications themselves. My gut feeling is that they don't have enough time to get the applications ready for Leopard.
Mac OS X's success is to be attributed to iterative development and I believe that this will continue. Even Sun, the company I regard to be the master of Operating System construction, prefers an iterative model. Solaris 10's Zones are awesome, but they are built upon Solaris 9's Containers. A complete Operating System is too complex a task to build within a reasonable time. Microsoft demonstrated that they cannot employ the Big Bang approach and succeed. So, they stripped out those things that were not ready and they will now release Vista and try to get you excited about the next release.
marshal sandler on Aug 13th, 2006 at 5:12 AM:
Why Kill Anyone ! Market Share develops with real competition, business exists for [Profit], It has no Heart! We need them all to give excellent hardware,software and affordable prices ! The machines are a tool, the best gadget just might win !
Alex Le on Aug 13th, 2006 at 6:53 AM:
great article (I wish there is a Trackback link so I can blog this too). I was surprised to read about Steve Jobs' recent poor speech but you make me realize how much one can be misled from the information provided.
I can see what you are saying is real and coming too. Apple's great plan is just not Microsoft, but to win all the windows' users one by one by offering superior products and functionalities. But I do trust in the ability of Microsoft. Remember, they are also delaying Vista to add in more features. There are also talents at Microsoft and they are the one who got the most money to spend.
David Rodgerson on Aug 13th, 2006 at 11:41 AM:
Alex Le wrote:
"But I do trust in the ability of Microsoft. Remember, they are also delaying Vista to add in more features."
Hi Alex,
That's not really true at all. Microsoft scratched many of the major features for Vista just to make it possible to ship and now they are delaying it simply because they are having trouble releasing a stable build. They haven't added features in some time.
David
David Rodgerson on Aug 13th, 2006 at 11:41 AM:
Oops. I realized I was lazy with my last post. When I said Microsoft removed major features from Vista already I wanted to give the example of WinFS instead of just being vague.
Kevin on Aug 13th, 2006 at 2:46 PM:
While the thesis sounds reasonable, it leaves one thing out of the equation, and that is price. I won't argue one way or another which is better for content creation, but most that want to do that today are probaby fairly tech savy and want faster hardware at the best price, and generally speaking, you can get an equivalent PC and then buy Premiere Elements (in some cases you could by Premiere) and have money left over.
And with the apple, you may have to buy Vista too. Who wants to pay for a 2nd OS, and make no mistake, if you're a gamer at some point youre probably going to want vista...that might be a year or so from now, but it's going to happen (unfortunately)
To some degree, I hope it happens. I don't see my self buying a Mac (I prefer to build my own), but if macs get enough marketshare, MS OS's will drop in price. I still win :)
Jim on Aug 13th, 2006 at 9:40 PM:
Articles like this crack me up.
Apple is about taking advantage of opportunities these days and nothing to do with taking anyone head on that is entrenched. MS is entrenched. People get all excited over drama that's what leads them to believe that Apple has crosshairs on MS. Sure, Apple would love to be #1 with MS #2 when it comes to marketshare for their respective platforms but it will not happen anytime soon. I don't think Apple fanboys understand that. There's too much to overcome.
As for Dell many feel they have been entrenched. They are far from it. If anything HP is in better shape than Dell. Dell made some good moves especially with the Intel deals years ago but those days are over. Dell knows this and they are trying to make some changes...note the AMD products coming plus they're making greater efforts to go after smaller markets. I speak from experience as the comm college I work at, Dell never really acted like they cared about us the last 5 years when some of our depts purchased their products. In the last 3 months this has all changed as they made some internal changes and now treat us as truly an important customer.
Apple will ride the wave on beating on Vista until it ships, sees the public's reaction to it, and the figures come in. My bets are placed that by the end of 2007, we will hear little of the direct attacks on Vista. A few yes but Apple's marketing focus will change once more.
My guess which is nothing groundbreaking is merely trying to win over the livingroom. People have been declaring for years that Apple is coming to late to the party. Well not really. They're waiting for the right opportunity when the ideal solution works. Simply put the technology is not there yet for an Apple solution but it's coming.
This means that, yes, it will probably be another Apple/MS showdown. How's that for drama? This will be the next big one. MS isn't going to take this lying down and be surprised. MS is learning and has the money to put behind what they have learned. Even while Apple has huge momentum behind it right now MS is adapting. My view on this is simple...to win the living room Apple will need to partner with someone. Again that's just my guess and may very well end up wrong. Things change over time that cannot always be predicted.
All in all though for those who follow statements Jobs makes he's doing exactly what he said he would do years ago and that is milk the Mac for all it's worth and move on to the next big thing. He's done this already. He's a capitalist and looking for opportunities by using the Mac user base. It's a great plan and has worked well thus far.
Simply put look for Apple to do just enough to keep the Mac user base happy with new Macs and operating systems. More innovation is going to go into Apple getting into other markets though. The whole taking on Dell and MS's Vista is just a temporary thing and more about building drama and support for Apple products than merely taking them on head to head.
Apple is making money and growing. That's what business is all about and that is exactly what Apple is doing.
BTW, in my opinion I also look for Apple to somehow integrate itunes in with .mac along with more social based features. Apple has a good thing going with .mac but the price needs to come down. For them to bring itunes users into the equation whether they be mac or windows users would drive .mac sales through the roof if done right. It wouldn't be about driving up Mac sales but it would to some extent. It's more about offerring enhanced services to build revenue and possibly profit. Just another lame brain idea so take it for what it's worth.
Snafu on Aug 14th, 2006 at 7:11 AM:
I'd say I agree with Jim and I would add that this next big thing is actually what we are seeing already: integrated Web Services-style things plus hardware whole packages. iPod + iTMS is such, and Front Row + MacMini (or some sort of gadgetry: Video iPod, Video Airport Express, etc.) surely will become another. Also, very good support of non-Apple's consumer electronic goods (which would include, I'd say, mating iPods to car HiFi and so).
Apple handpicks and exploits such practical implementations of those trendy but nebulous web services movements very well.
But the most important thing is that everything is subordinate to advancing the Apple brand. It is the umbrella that allows for experimenting, even turning mistakes into gloriously mythic failures, I guess. As long as the buzz is there, the Apple corporation will thrive, no matter the marketshare. I don't think Dell or Microsoft have anything to worry about: only if they try to compete in a niche in which Apple has produced a solution, because then they are primarily competing with Apple's brand (and that's why I am quite interested in seeing how Microsoft will angle its Zune marketing. I think Zume would work well, but not as a trendy thing to have as the iPod is but as some mix of Xbox Live client/techy gadget/"good enough for me" product).
Funnily enough, I believe most of those new Apple Store Mac buyers that never had a Mac before didn't even know Macs had its own OS instead of Windows. They only knew that It was this quirky Apple brand, and that Macs and iPods had good looks. And this "not getting virus" thing (which probably they didn't know it had to do with the OS. OS? What's an OS?).
ChrisMcD on Aug 14th, 2006 at 9:42 AM:
Good analysis, but perhaps not spot on.
Apple make the bulk of their profit from hardware with the software as the 'bait and switch' technique (ie the iPod/iTunes).
Apple have led the laptop market before and both understand and lead the developing consumer/laptop market.
Jobs is well underway on his programme to develop a new market segment - 'the premium consumer laptop segment'.
He did it with the iPod and he's doing it again - just look at the MacBook and its cost (no cheap and cheerful student iBook replacement this!)
By definition Dell are never going to be 'premium'! The people who should be watching their backs are the Sony Vaio team!!
But why stop at hardware markets where Apple compete at the moment? Jobs is keen to supply all the upmarket consumers mobile electronic needs
Those boring mobile phone makers should also be worried. At the moment the US phone channel companies may have a stranglehold on the end users choice of handset. But that is not true in the UK and a lot of other places
I could switch to an Apple handset by simply sticking my SIM card in. And I will when I get the chance - even if Apple overcharge the Brits as usual!
So an Apple mobile phone is also part of Jobb's plan for world domination. Bring it on!!
Dan D. on Aug 14th, 2006 at 1:44 PM:
This article is pretty much spot on, but it's hardly earth shattering in it's intuition and insight; Apple is and always has been a HARDware company which just happens to make some excellent software as a (now more than ever important) means of distinction from the competition, plus does digital media to supplement its bottom line, but even still... the iPod is far more profitable than the iTunes Music Store. The most insightful bit is about saving the 4th quarter.
I must admit to being a bit confused about "Apple's anti-open source server strategy". With the major exception of the WebObjects Deployment runtime, all, or nearly all the components of OS X server are open source, even if the graphical management tools they include are not.
Michael Williams on Aug 15th, 2006 at 7:02 AM:
My experience verifies your rationale. For years I had attempted to get my home video onto the computer, edited, and onto DVD, always unsuccessfully. When my Dell notebook died I was intrigued by the 12" powerbook and purchased it as my replacement. I was very happy with the system and ended up also replacing my desktop with an iMac.
Then I discovered iLife. Within a few hours I had completed my first DVD from some of my home movies. In very short order all my video was on professional looking DVD's. EVERYONE I show them to is astounded at how good they look and wants to know how I did it. My answer is one sentence, "Buy an Apple".
Now several friends and neighbors have switched and I know several more who plan to. I think that iLife has the potential to sell Macs the way Office has sold PC's.
Just my personal experience.
Alan Williams on Aug 18th, 2006 at 2:45 PM:
Rob,
No one will be buying an Apple this year or next. Apple Computer stopped selling Apples about a decade ago. They are still selling Macs though. They control about 12% of the US laptop market alone. How can you be an Apple expert when you don't even know the name of the PC's Apple sells?
Now that Apple is selling desktops and will soon be selling laptops, with 64 bit chips, buying a Mac in 2006 and using it for 1/2 a year before upgrading your OS to a fully 64 bit Leopard is not going to create any loss for anyone. Unlike Windows, Leopard will actually make older 64 bit hardware faster when Tiger is replaced.
Buying a new Mac now is a win, win. You get to use OS X and iLife and the best Windows and Linux programs now, all on one computer and next spring you can upgrade to a fully 64 bit OS and still use 32 bit apps seamlessly, not in emulation, along with your Linux and Windows apps.
The Mac truly has much more software than a Windows PC although you will not need to use all of that Windows security software if you just use the Mac side for communication and the internet.
jahrends on Mar 7th, 2007 at 7:16 PM:
I love how people act towards people who support a product because it works rather than support a product because they don't know any better are called fanboys. I would say that the people that call apple fans "Fan boys" are in fact fan boys themselves. The blindly defend an honestly crappy OS. Windows has taught the world that a computer is a very unstable device. You should expect your computer to lock up hold its breath and turn blue in the face. In four years I have not had to turn my G4 mac off because it crashed. This sort of thing happens all the time with windows... go figure MS Fan Boys unite and go stand inthe corner for being lemmings.
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Jason Howard on Aug 11th, 2006 at 4:58 PM:
I think you are spot on. I've long believed after hearing and seeing Parallels and Boot Camp that Apple is trying to slowly wean people of Microsoft XP (and any future OS) and onto OS X. What a brilliant move!
I never thought about them going after Dell and other OEM, but it just makes sense.